Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.132277 0.145655 0.159338 0.174351 0.190332 0.206806 0.225046
2024-12-15 0.109403 0.129387 0.150817 0.175379 0.202626 0.231803 0.265283
2024-12-22 0.089770 0.113577 0.140248 0.172033 0.208570 0.248956 0.296669
2024-12-29 0.079994 0.107255 0.138945 0.177934 0.224039 0.276272 0.339357
2025-01-05 0.071451 0.101134 0.136829 0.182015 0.236784 0.300150 0.378112
2025-01-12 0.063828 0.095145 0.134025 0.184546 0.247153 0.320944 0.413202
2025-01-19 0.056734 0.088987 0.130287 0.185295 0.254879 0.338292 0.444100
2025-01-26 0.055385 0.090185 0.135757 0.197530 0.276804 0.372949 0.496119
2025-02-02 0.050628 0.086206 0.134046 0.200227 0.286564 0.392665 0.530096
2025-02-09 0.046916 0.083313 0.133468 0.204149 0.297726 0.414074 0.566249
2025-02-16 0.042279 0.078620 0.130044 0.203957 0.303336 0.428403 0.593618
2025-02-23 0.041200 0.079134 0.133811 0.213464 0.321682 0.458979 0.641553
2025-03-02 0.039804 0.079251 0.137273 0.223040 0.340876 0.491669 0.693594
2025-03-09 0.036008 0.075247 0.134539 0.223869 0.348385 0.509490 0.727144
2025-03-16 0.031308 0.069292 0.128521 0.219728 0.348945 0.518197 0.749111
2025-03-23 0.029767 0.068518 0.130236 0.226658 0.364721 0.547001 0.797256
2025-03-30 0.027870 0.066926 0.130549 0.231462 0.377557 0.572026 0.840738
2025-04-06 0.025753 0.064713 0.129710 0.234443 0.387801 0.593646 0.879942
2025-04-13 0.023412 0.061825 0.127581 0.235324 0.394978 0.611144 0.913833
2025-04-20 0.023844 0.064297 0.134291 0.249773 0.421728 0.655371 0.983425
2025-04-27 0.022169 0.062451 0.133711 0.252951 0.432265 0.677647 1.024081
2025-05-04 0.020877 0.061237 0.134097 0.257571 0.444895 0.702860 1.068826
2025-05-11 0.018903 0.058381 0.131488 0.257345 0.450358 0.718209 1.100437